It’s a feeling of deja vu as these Madrid rivals square off once again with the Champions League on the line. This time however, we are seeing these teams at the peak of their powers.
Before the 2014 final, Atletico Madrid were running on empty. Their league title triumph had left the side physically shattered, while neighbours Real were coming off the back of some dreadful league results and had a long injury list. While the ending to the final was exciting, the game itself didn’t live up to the hype, as both sides were not their usual selves. Real looked blunt and short on confidence, devoid of their usual pace and penetration. Atletico were out on their feet for the entire game. They bundled their way in front and tried to hang on to their goal lead, but the physical toll of a long season saw Los Rojiblancos eventually cave in the last seconds.
Atletico (3.25) are now at full strength, with possibly a stronger squad than two years ago. It is clear to see the evolution of this side in their tactical development. Simeone has managed to fine-tune a man marking system in midfield which allows them to pressure the opposition high up the pitch during certain parts of the game. This means the opposition players are under too much pressure to receive the ball and start any attacks. Later in games, they substitute their high pressing for a deeper lying defensive screen, which conserves energy, and makes them extremely hard to break down.
Atletico’s defensive unit is as good as it gets. Expect Ronaldo and Co. to have their work cut out getting past them (A 0-0 draw at half time is at 2.33). However, it would be a disservice to call them solely a defensive team. In Antoine Griezmann they have the new attacking star of world football, and Fernando Torres has rediscovered his form, replicating the pace and finishing ability of years gone by. Atletico’s counter attacking style means they create clear cut chances by getting in behind the opposition’s back four. So just like they did against Bayern Munich and Barcelona, they may well punish Real with an incisive break on Saturday night and are 2.19 to get the first goal just like they did two years ago.
Even by Real Madrid’s (2.50) high standards, Zinedine Zidane is probably surpassing expectations as new coach. A 12-game winning streak in the league brought them to the brink of a remarkable La Liga title, but even though Barcelona held on, it is clear to see Zidane’s calming influence on his side. While they still retain the attacking quality present in all Real Madrid teams, they look like a more balanced outfit. An important cog in this team is Brazilian midfielder Casemiro, as he provides the sort of quiet defensive security previous Madrid sides haven’t had but have so desperately needed. Gareth Bale is probably having his best year in Spain, and Cristiano Ronaldo keeps scoring goals at a phenomenal rate. At 31 years of age, the Portuguese star may not find himself in many more finals and he will be keen to etch his name into history with a crucial goal in this tie, as he was lambasted for his celebration during his unimportant fourth goal in the final of two years ago. With their new found defensive security and customary attacking brilliance, a home win to nil for Real Madrid at 3.14 could be a smart move.
Given the cautious nature usually displayed in finals, both halves under 1.5 goals seems like a clever bet at 1.92.
If Atletico win, expect it to be by the minimum, an away win margin of one goal is great value at 4.24.
Fancy the game to play out like two years ago with both teams to score? You will get good odds of 1.99.
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